Well, the Texas primary is less than a month away, which probably means little to those of you who aren’t in Texas. It probably means little to a whole bunch of folks in Texas who figure whoever the Republicans choose will win in the general election come November. It probably means little to yet another bunch of folks, sadly the vast majority of registered voters in Texas, who won’t even bother to cast a ballot.
For instance, on the last go round in 2024, more than 80% of registered voters let less than 20% of that population determine who would be the nominees. Taking into consideration those eligible to vote that aren’t even registered, that gave a whopping number of almost 17,000,000 who it could be safely said simply didn’t give a damn. In that primary, in a state that has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in over 30 years, a scant 2,320,000 voters determined which Republicans would go on to win handily in the general election. That’s less than 8% of the population of Texas, and that’s what democracy looks like down here in the Lone Star state.
The race for the U. S. Senate seat is proving to be the best political circus in Texas in decades. That is only possible because Republicans in Texas are simply not acting like Republicans in Texas. We’re used to little mystery when it comes to who will get the Republican nomination for the various statewide offices that the party invariably wins, particularly when an incumbent is up for reelection. Names like Kay Bailey Hutchison, Rick Perry, and Greg Abbott don’t bring out very serious challenges. Even Ted Cruz manages to get the nomination without much fuss.
But John Cornyn, the senior senator from Texas, who has been in that seat since before some current voters were born, is facing a challenge from current Attorney General Ken Paxton. That’s like a fight between a greyhound and a junkyard dog. Add into the mix Wesley Hunt, a congressman from Texas, with enough support that the race may end up in a runoff, and we’ve got a real horse race. (I know, Karl, I’m mixing my metaphors.)
Trump hasn’t weighed in so far, but he’s starting to tease out in public the possibility of doing so. “My problem is I’m friendly with all of them. I like all of them, all three.” All three? This is getting good.
Paxton has his baggage, of course. He spent almost ten years under felony indictment for securities fraud, which was finally settled last year. Divorce and alleged adultery are part of the mix. That’s not disqualifying in Republican politics these days.
Additionally, he was impeached by the Republican controlled Texas House, with a majority of Republicans (72%) voting for it. But the Texas Senate acquitted him, as the bipartisan vote to remove him from office failed to reach the threshold to do so. Paxton has a good deal in common with the current president.
Here’s a recent exchange between the two Republicans. Paxton: Cornyn’s career is done and everyone knows it. He’s stolen $50+ million from races in NC, ME, MI, and GA and what does he have to show for it? He’s stuck in the mid-20s, doesn’t even know if he’ll make the runoff, and is set to lose by huge margins even if he does. The Cornyn response: Ken, when this is over, you will have nothing. Which turns out to be the same thing you offered to give Angela in divorce proceedings. This, after you cheated on her multiple times.
Looks like that old greyhound can get down in the mud with the rest of them
Over on the Democratic side, there’s U. S. representative Jasmine Crockett and Texas House representative James Talarico. While her name recognition and experience outstrip those of Talarico, the Democratic chattering class routinely turns to the old trope about electability. If may very well be true that a White man running in Texas will garner more votes in a general election than a Black woman. It may also be true that Texas will only elect a Democrat to any statewide office when enough of the few people in the state who actually vote will have had enough from the Republicans to demand change, regardless of who is on the ballot.
There is an argument to be made that neither Crockett nor Talarico have shown themselves at this point to be as strong a potential candidate as the better ones put up by Democrats in the recent past. Beto O’Rourke famously shaved the losing margin down to less than 3 points in 2018, while Colin Allred got more than 5,000,000 votes (almost a million more than O’Rourke) in 2024—the largest vote total for a Democrat running for statewide office ever.
The Super Bowl is this weekend, but Texas politics are still in the playoffs. This race is likely to be either a snoozer (Cornyn vs. Talarico), a lop-sided battle (Cornyn vs. Crockett, Paxton vs. Talarico), or a bloodbath (Crockett vs. Paxton) in terms of political entertainment value.
Who the clowns will be is yet to be determined.
