Here we are in Texas, having spent Tuesday night being the center of attention in the various broadcasts of election night primary results. Texas likes to be the center of attention and has, on occasion, gone out of its way to be just that.
Much of that attention was centered on the voter confusion in Dallas County about where those voters had to vote, the resulting delay in closing the polls by court order, and then the Texas Supreme Court pausing the lower court’s ruling. None of that is particularly surprising for Texas in general or Dallas specifically. Lord knows, when all eyes are on us, we have a propensity to put on a show, regardless of how limited the duration of that attention might be.
So once it was clear that the Republicans were going to a runoff and that Talarico had won over Crockett, the limelight turned to other subjects. So now we’re like the host after a big party, looking around to determine how to clean up the mess left behind when all the guests left. And it is rather a mess.
On the Republican side, the slugfest between incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Texas AG Ken Paxton will now continue for almost three months, until May 26. If the run-up to this week’s primary is any indication, this race will be brutal, nasty, and hugely expensive. (Perhaps I should say “bigly” expensive, as both candidates are rubbing up on Trump like a cheap suit.) It should prove fun to watch, particularly now that Trump has said his endorsement will be forthcoming and he expects the other candidate to drop out. Oh, please do it, Donnie. Texans just LOVE being told what to do.
Those who can vote in that runoff will be limited to those who voted in the Republican primary and those who didn’t vote in the primary at all. Since Talarico is the known Democratic candidate for the general election in November, those voters can, and most likely will, factor “electability” into their voting decision. That factor, which no doubt played a role in the Democratic selection of Talarico, bodes well for Cornyn in conventional thinking. I’m not a big fan of predicting what Texans will do, being one myself and having watched Texans in and out of the voting booth for more years than I care to disclose. But it will drive at least some voting decisions come the May runoff, which may prove to be an advantage for Republicans come November.
Talarico has the challenge of uniting Democrats, a task I would not wish on my worst friend. And despite the calendar which allows eight months until the general election, he really needs to make hay in this arena before the runoff. Democrats are notoriously fickle, Texas Democrats particularly, and their words do not often match their deeds. That is especially so when it comes to party unity.
One of the things in Talarico’s favor is the sheer volume of turnout for the Democratic primary. Combining the two parties results this week, 51.3% voted Democratic compared to the 48.7% for Republicans. Beto O’Rourke, the much vaunted almost-winner of Texas Democrats, did not start the race with that kind of advantage. Looking at the two major candidates from both parties, Talarico got 30% of that vote, while neither Republican cracked even a quarter.
It is interesting to note that if Texas had a nonpartisan primary (“jungle primary”), the two candidates in the runoff would be Talarico and Crockett, as Crockett received more votes than either Cornyn or Paxton. There have been times in recent elections where a jungle primary would have resulted in two Republicans advancing. But two Democrats in Texas? Something to chew on, don’t you think?
Now here’s the thing. Does everybody know there were other offices on that ballot in this election? While the national media was focused on the Senate race, I didn’t see anyone talking much about the race for governor, where both incumbent Greg Abbott and state representative Gina Hinojosa handily won the nominations, as was pretty much expected. Will this race drive out a heavier-than-usual turnout of Hispanic voters with a Latina candidate? Or because of the insecurity driven in that community by ICE since Trump took office last year? For decades, these voters have been the unicorn of Texas politics. Only time will tell what they will do and how determinative that will be in the general election.
So while the Republicans seem poised to beat each other with baseball bats, figuratively speaking, what should Democrats do? To combine the unlikely combination of RuPaul and Snow White: you better work it, and you better whistle while you do it.
