I don’t like surprises. Not usually, anyway. Maybe because my experience has not been of the “Surprise, you just won $100,000,000” variety. It’s been more of the “Guess what, we’re shutting down the Dallas office” type. Capisce? (I had to look up that spelling.)
There are those delicious surprises that we sometimes get from the movies. Lines like “I see dead people” or “Who is Keyser Soze?” remind us of the thrill of seeing certain movies for the first time, leaving the theater wondering why we didn’t see THAT coming. And while we may not mind being fooled at the movies, we do tend to mind it in real life.
We may like to shiver with anticipation, but we want to know whose name is in the envelope. Or, at the very least, whose name is probably in there. We ask our friends, “How about those Cowboys?” Because if they bomb out in the first few games, we won’t set ourselves up for any disappointment. Or, worry about giving a Super Bowl for the first time in over 20 years.
When we’re not asking our friends and family about what they think is going to happen, we look for other signs. In some cases, literal signs. During an election season, some of the more politically addicted among us (including me) compulsively count yard signs to get some kind of anecdotal read on what the neighbors are thinking. But not so much this year. I don’t know whether it’s shame or fear, but there are a lot of folks who always put up yard signs but who are curiously mute this year.
I don’t see many bumper stickers either. Personally, I don’t do bumper stickers unless I am being paid by the campaign involved. And while my car will be old enough to vote in the next mid-term election, she shouldn’t be subjected to physical abuse because of my politics.
As a result, Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com website is my new compulsion. He’s giving the Cubs a 62% chance of winning the World Series, which makes that contest worth watching…that and the fact that it’s the Cubs in the World Series, for goodness sake. Even I know that’s newsworthy. Nate has also pegged Hillary Clinton at 85% likelihood for moving back to the White House, which is slightly better than Trump’s 84% probability of winning Texas. Texas may not be swinging (yet), but it’s already moved from blood red to hot pink. Who’d a thunk it?
So unless Trump pulls off the unlikely win, there won’t be any surprise come November 8. Which doesn’t mean millions of Clinton won’t breathe a sigh of relief or that millions of Trump supporters won’t throw things at the television. It just means one shouldn’t be surprised if the probable outcome comes to pass. Kind of like the lack of surprise when Julianne Moore finally won the Oscar on her fifth nomination in a weak field.
What we really don’t know is what happens on November 9 and after, regardless of who actually wins. Can (or will) the Republican defectors get back into political bed with the Trump supporters? Will it be a party redux or something different? How will Trump wear the mantle of defeated presidential candidate, if he loses? And, if she wins, what will Hillary wear to the inaugural balls?
Maybe I am up for a surprise or two.
