After months of teasing, bumping, grinding, and more than a little tassel twirling, Trump went full monty this week by endorsing Attorney General Ken Paxton over Senator John Cornyn in the race for the Republican nomination for the U. S. Senate seat that Cornyn currently holds. Well, maybe not full monty as Trump is continuing to tease J. D. Vance and Marco Rubio in much the same way.
This seemingly is good news for Democrats and their candidate James Talarico, as Paxton is viewed by many as being weaker than Cornyn. So there may have been some popping of champagne bottles on that side, as well as whatever it is the Paxton folks pop to celebrate.
I assiduously avoided much of the mainstream media when I heard of this announcement. News coverage these days frequently provides only a scintilla of news with an abundance of speculation that passes as coverage. I simply felt no need to hear folks who are no more connected to Texas politics than Alaska is to Texas itself misrepresent the implications of Trump’s choice while simultaneously omitting important considerations.
So why is Paxton considered a weaker candidate than Cornyn by so many? Well, the Republican majority in the Texas legislature impeached him just three years ago in the most surprising move I think I’ve ever seen here in all my years of watching this circus. Not that Paxton shouldn’t have been impeached, but it’s usually Democrats, not Republicans, who eat their own.
Then there’s the allegations of serial adultery, which is clearly not disqualifying for most Republicans in Texas, or across the nation for that matter. Trump has behaved like a hound dog for decades, but he’s still president. So, as they say, that hound dog won’t hunt.
It is true that Republicans in Texas, particularly those in officialdom, have been acting like Democrats here lately. The negative ads coming from both the Cornyn and the Paxton campaigns are some of the most scathing I’ve ever seen. But there’s a far cry between acting like Democrats and voting like Democrats. It may be that the most the Democrats can hope for is that some of the Republicans will do what so many Democrats do on election day. Stay home.
Election day is next Tuesday, and all registered voters in Texas are eligible to vote in the Republican primary UNLESS they voted in the Democratic primary. Does that mean some of those card-carrying Independents may sneak out and vote in the runoff? Could be. They say only fools forecast what the weather will be and what voters will do in Texas. Trust me, I’ve been a fool on both scores more than once.
Republicans have already spent almost $100 million on this race, and we’re not even to the general election. It is arguable that they cannot allow Talarico to take this seat, no matter how much money it costs. Not because of anything to do with Talarico himself, but because flipping even one statewide race in Texas for the first time in over 30 years is a bad harbinger two years before a presidential election.
So the one thing that is sure is that money is going to rain down on Texas politics like manna from heaven between now and November, no matter who wins next Tuesday. What should Democrats do? They have their work cut out for them, but they always do. I suggest minding their knitting, particularly as it relates to reliable Democratic voters who are feeling disaffected in this cycle.
I suspect the national media would be attracted to the sizzle of a battle between Talarico and Paxton. If it’s Cornyn, perhaps not so much. It’s been 20 years since Texans elected a U. S. Senator not named Cornyn or Cruz. (The last time we elected a governor not named Abbott or Perry was in the last century.)
That’s not to say or predict anything. There’s something in the air, there’s a bit of a rumble in the wind. The sky is cloudy, and it smells like rain. I’ve thought and frequently said that Texas will elect a Democrat statewide when voters have had enough of Republican rule.
Maybe we’ll get that storm. Maybe we’ll get a tornado in Mineral Wells. Maybe it’ll pass on to Oklahoma.
Weather and politics in Texas. Well, you know what they say.
