Well, we’re getting to the thick part of it in the election now. Not necessarily the good part, but the thick part. I can tell from the titles of the email blasts I receive, and I suspect that some of you are getting the exact same ones that come to me.
One of my personal favorites is “A Few Questions for You.” It seems to me I should have a few questions for you as you’re the one running for office. Besides, I’m not in the district you’re seeking to represent. My neighbors and I have been gerrymandered into a safely Republican district that includes a big swath of East Texas, but not that part of East Texas that I come from. In fact, this district is so safely Republican, I have heard neither hide nor hair from either of the candidates.
Then there’s the “A Personal Request.” It’s so personal in fact, that my name is omitted except for the first two letters. Is deleting the email request to get into my checkbook personal? Maybe it would be if I even lived in the same state as the candidate.
“We both hate it” arrived early this morning, ostensibly from the campaign manager of a gubernatorial campaign in a state not named Texas. What this manager and this candidate apparently hate is asking me for money, a problem for which there is a most simple solution. Don’t do it. And exactly why are you doing it anyway? That race is set for a solid Democratic win in any event.
Putting the begging for money aside, we’re getting into early voting and all that comes from that. For the political junkie, this period is election foreplay. There’s teasing, tickling, and a certain amount of other activity going on just like in that other kind of foreplay. As I write this, it is the fourth day of early voting here in Texas, and social media and cable news is providing a steady stream of information about the numbers, their comparisons to previous years, and so forth. It’s almost like folks are gulping down a whole cup of Earl Grey just to get to read the tea leaves.
Some folks seem to be a little punch drunk, talking about Democrats expanding the electoral map. Mississippi? Talking about Mississippi? I suppose practically anything is possible in the political world America is living in today, but it is usually a very good idea to mind one’s knitting. Ten years ago, that same kind of talk was applied to Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign. Does anyone remember how that turned out?
Not to prognosticate, but history seems to favor Democrats in this moment. The party in opposition to the White House has landed a majority in the House of Representatives in every midterm election since 2002. The Senate is harder to flip, and flipping both houses in the same election is even harder than that. But it’s possible, which should keep everyone just a little on edge rather than folks getting out over their skis.
As an aside, I don’t ski, so I’m not really sure what that idiom means. I think it means one is leaning too into it, which I suspect means we’re talking about snow skiing. But I could be wrong about that. In any event, I’m pretty sure that the end result of getting out over your skis is that you will completely tump over.
But all of that is just generalities and political trends. It says nothing of a specific race or a particular set of political circumstances. Election results almost always have nuances associated with them, and some folks have a problem seeing the forest for the trees. There were those back in 2018 for whom Beto O’Rourke’s defeat in the Texas senate race overshadowed the shift in the balance of power in Washington that created a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives. Of course, that outcome doesn’t predict what will happen in this midterm race here in Texas.
Most of the political pundits seem to believe that the Democrats are going to have something to celebrate, and I have no argument with that thinking. I suspect there will be some disappointments as well. On the Republican side, there may be more disappointment than causes for celebration. It may be that the best they can hope for is comfort from the idea that it could have been worse. But no one really knows what’s going to happen.
While writing all of this, a political email finally arrived with a title I can get behind without reservation: “The polls are open!”
